The Great Divide Between the Ledger and the Mood

I once knew a baker who could tell the state of the economy by the size of the queue at six in the morning, long before any minister cleared his throat. Her verdict never came with decimals. It came with a shrug, or a sigh, or a sudden decision to stop selling the expensive loaves. I thought of her on 9 October, when the University of Michigan published its preliminary October reading of consumer sentiment, and the number landed like a stone in a pond.