Institutions

Demonstration content: this opinion piece presents a general argument and does not describe a live forecast or confidential assessment. Policy teams often feel pressure to turn uncertainty into a single likely outcome. That can make a presentation feel decisive while hiding the assumptions that matter most. Scenarios offer a different discipline: describe several plausible conditions and ask whether a decision remains useful across them.

DEMO EXPLAINER — A plain-language framework for comparing priorities, constraints and promises without relying on invented figures.