A public budget is a map of choices, not a scorecard

Demonstration content: this guide uses no real budget figures and makes no claim about a particular government. It illustrates a method readers can apply to published documents.

Budget debates often compress a complicated document into a single number. That number can be useful, but it rarely explains what changed, who is affected or whether a stated priority has dependable funding behind it.

Establish what the numbers mean

Begin by separating plans from outturns. An announced allocation describes an intention. A revised estimate reflects a later view of delivery. Actual expenditure records what was spent under a particular accounting definition. These measures answer different questions and should not be compared as if they were interchangeable.

• Measure: allocation, revised estimate or actual outturn?
• Time: which fiscal year and which future commitments?
• Scope: which institutions and programmes are included?
• Basis: nominal, inflation-adjusted, per person or another unit?

Next, look for the time horizon. A one-year appropriation may fund the first stage of a programme whose costs continue for several years. Conversely, a multi-year headline may depend on annual approval and can change with future decisions. The document notes and annexes often explain these limits more clearly than the headline tables.

A number becomes useful when its definition, time period and decision context travel with it.

Then ask what the comparison includes. Nominal amounts do not account for inflation. Department totals can hide transfers between programmes. Per-person comparisons require a consistent population measure. A chart should state its unit, baseline, period and source so another reader can reproduce it.

Follow the delivery chain

Finally, compare the stated objective with the delivery mechanism. Does the responsible institution have staff, procurement capacity and a reporting measure? Is there a review point if assumptions change? A credible budget is not simply large or small. It makes choices legible and gives the public a way to assess whether promised results followed.